FlashForward: Black Swan Theory

The “Black Swan Theory”, as described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a Lebanese epistemologist and a mathematical financier, refers to the fact that all large impact historical events occur undirected and unpredicted.

He asserts that all major scientific discoveries, historical events, and technological breakthroughs are “black swans”, or outliers from the normal historical distribution.

Since these events are impossible to predict, we need to learn how to exploit the positive black swan events, while avoiding or preparing for the negative ones.

The basic premise of Taleb’s Black Swan theory is that almost all high-impact, consequential historical events are unpredictable and occur at random. The humans are only able to fabricate explanations for these otherwise unexplainable events in hindsight. The theory assumes that it is basic human nature to find pattern in the patternless, to find form in the formless, and to find reason in chaos.

Perhaps the organization responsible for the “blackout” is out to prove Mr. Taleb wrong, and nullify the Black Swan theory by proving that the unexpected can be predicted, the future can be changed, that there is reason, and nothing is random.

Flash Forward: Black Swan Review

Alright folks, its official, the “blackout” was not a random event, but in fact caused by a group of people, compliments of Simon, or Charlie if you’d like. I guess all the theories pertaining to the “event” being a natural occurrence can be discounted, now that we know it was fabricated.  That interesting, cliff-hanging phone call in the end of the episode, left a lot of people pondering as to the connection between the man from Olivia’s dream and Simon, as well as their connection to the “blackout”.

I guess it seems like my earlier prediction might still hold water. I just cannot associate  Simon (Charlie) with a terrorist, or a villain for that matter. I might be wrong, but from what I can tell, he seems more like an idealist, a sophist perhaps.  If he is somehow responsible for the “flashforward”, I would imagine it would be for some kind of “epistemological” reasons.

I really like the beginning of the episode, especially the juxtaposition between the calm, serene music, and the chaotic scenes from when the “blackout” occurred. Ned, because of his strange flashforward, in which he imagined himself a black man, caused us to wonder whether the flashforward’s are accurate or merely figments of our imagination. But this question was quickly answered once we find out he has a pigment skin disease, which other wise would have caused him to die on the operating table.

Dimitri finally opens up. Enough said.

And Alda, Osama’s girlfriend, seems to know more than what she’s telling, albeit she led the agents on the wrong path, it seems to me that she might know the people responsible for the flashforward. What I’m still unsure about is whether the flashforward had something to do with Ned’s condition, and if the blackouts have some kind of side effects? My guess is yes, I think the flashforward will affect certain people in certain ways, perhaps opening up abilities they never knew they had.